Verified Double-Precision Math Core

Mathematical Methodology & Validation

This document details the exact mathematical formulas, numerical solvers, golden test vectors, and industry standards underpinning every calculation in the AshToolbox Maintenance & Reliability Suite.

1. Architectural Principles

Calculations within this suite run entirely client-side using native double-precision floating-point arithmetic (IEEE 754). Zero user-entered parameters, equipment operational data, or imported failure logs leave the user's web browser. Heavy non-linear fits (such as Weibull Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Monte Carlo simulations) are offloaded to dedicated browser Web Workers with progress reporting and cancellation support.

2. Industry Standards Provenance

Every model in the catalog traces directly to peer-reviewed reliability textbooks or established international standards:

  • IEC 61649: Weibull analysis — Goodness-of-fit, parameter estimation via Rank Regression (RRX, RRY) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE).
  • ISO 281: Rolling bearings — Dynamic load ratings and rating life (basic L10 and modified L10h rating life with a1 reliability factors).
  • IEC 60812: Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA and FMECA) — Qualitative and quantitative risk ranking methodologies.
  • IEC 61025: Fault tree analysis (FTA) — Boolean reduction and MOCUS minimal cut sets.
  • IEC 61078: Reliability block diagrams (RBD) — Series, parallel, and k-out-of-n active/standby redundancy modeling.
  • EN 15341 / SMRP: Maintenance Key Performance Indicators — Standard formulas for PM compliance, schedule compliance, and backlog duration.
  • MIL-HDBK-189 & MIL-STD-1629A: Reliability growth tracking and failure mode criticality number formulation.

3. Primary Literature References (Cited by Name)

  • Dr. Robert B. Abernethy, The New Weibull Handbook (5th Edition).
  • Charles E. Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering.
  • William Q. Meeker and Luis A. Escobar, Statistical Methods for Reliability Data.
  • F. Stanley Nowlan and Howard F. Heap, Reliability-Centered Maintenance (United States Department of Defense).
  • John Moubray, Reliability-Centred Maintenance (RCM II).
  • Andrew K.S. Jardine and Albert H.C. Tsang, Maintenance, Replacement, and Reliability: Theory and Applications.

4. Golden Test Vectors & Verification Tolerances

Our automated test harness (Vitest) verifies each closed-form calculation against published analytical benchmarks:

Equation / Model Benchmark Condition Expected Golden Value Tolerance
Exponential R(t) MTBF = 1000, t = 100 0.904837418 1e-6
Availability (Ai) MTBF = 900, MTTR = 100 0.900000 (876 h downtime/yr) 1e-6
k-out-of-n n = 3, k = 2, R = 0.9 0.972000 1e-6
Weibull MTTF β = 2, η = 1000, γ = 0 886.2269 1e-4
Weibull B10 Life β = 2, η = 1000, γ = 0 324.593 1e-3
OEE Composite Avail 433/480, Ideal 1.0, 380/400 0.791667 (79.17%) 1e-5
Bearing L10h C = 30 kN, P = 10 kN, 1000 rpm (Ball) 450.0 hours (27M revs) 0.1 h
Poisson Spares (s) Mean demand = 2.0, Target = 0.90 s = 4 (CDF = 0.9473) Exact integer
Equivalent Annual Cost C0 = 100,000, n = 10, i = 8% 14902.95 1e-2
Arrhenius AF Ea = 0.7 eV, Tuse = 328.15K, Tstress = 398.15K 77.6 0.5

5. Numerical Limitations & Boundaries

  • Minimum Failures for Weibull Fitting: A minimum of 3 distinct failures is required to fit a 2-parameter Weibull model. Datasets with fewer than 6 failures display a prominent small-sample warning.
  • Root-Finding Fallbacks: Brent bracketed solving is strictly bounded. If an optimization does not converge within the maximum iterations, the tool displays a diagnostic message explaining the convergence failure rather than returning a misleading number.
  • Single Censoring Mode: Right-censoring (suspensions) is supported across all models. Heavy arbitrary interval censoring requires sufficient data points per inspection window.

6. Changelog & Version History

Version 1.0.0 (October 30, 2026)
  • Initial release of the Maintenance & Reliability Suite Foundations.
  • Single source of truth architecture (tools.registry.ts) across 8 engineering disciplines.
  • Double-precision Math Core with Lanczos Gamma, Wichura AS241 Normal, and Chi-Square quantile functions.
  • Client-side IndexedDB PBKDF2/AES-GCM (256-bit) project vault.
  • 15 canonical closed-form golden tests passing with 100% test coverage.
Engineering & Regulatory Notice: The calculations, projections, and failure models provided in this suite are for engineering estimation and educational purposes. Verify all calculations and assumptions independently before making operational, equipment replacement, safety-critical, or regulatory compliance decisions.